Will France win on 2026-11-12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$155.93

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares10,874

Combined PnL+$160.86

No3 traders

Total Value$164.84

Total Shares375

Combined PnL-$4.93

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403	Yesavg 54.4¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$142.95	0% 0-66 (66)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$50.05	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$59.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$514.25	$523.6	+$9.35
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.5	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$676.4	$671.4	-$5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$412.5	$420	+$7.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$2.4	16% 66-347 (413)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.4¢	$636.39	$631.3	-$5.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$412.5	$420	+$7.5
FV Fvalp	Yesavg 55¢	$901.57	$917.96	+$16.39	67% 69-34 (103)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$273.13	$270	-$3.13	48% 879-959 (1838)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.4¢	$141.78	$137.28	-$4.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.4¢	$131.35	$132.72	+$1.37
OD OddstormARB<$100	Noavg 46¢	$90.96	$88.88	-$2.08	15% 16-94 (110)
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$47.84	$45.76	-$2.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$43.12	$43.12	+$0
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$116.49	$87.23	-$3.1	53% 325-288 (613)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$41.88	$40.06	-$1.82	31% 170-384 (554)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$37.55	$37.55	+$0	37% 198-333 (531)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$26.8	$28.32	+$1.52	61% 894-574 (1468)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$142.95

Record

0-66 (66)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,290.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$50.05

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

No$1,776.6745.5¢-$59.4

Yes$514.2555¢+$9.35

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,088.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

Both legs:

No$676.444.3¢-$5

Yes$412.555¢+$7.5

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,048.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.4

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

Both legs:

Invested

$901.57

Value

$917.96

PnL

+$16.39

Record

67%

69-34 (103)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$273.13

Value

$270

PnL

-$3.13

Record

48%

879-959 (1838)

Both legs:

No$141.7845.4¢-$4.5

Yes$131.3555.4¢+$1.37

OddstormARB<$100

Invested

$90.96

Value

$88.88

PnL

-$2.08

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Both legs:

No$47.8446¢-$2.08

Yes$43.1256¢+$0

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$116.49

Value

$87.23

PnL

-$3.1

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$41.88

Value

$40.06

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$37.55

Value

$37.55

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

198-333 (531)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.8

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$1.52

Record

61%

894-574 (1468)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.