Will Central Espanol FC vs. Defensor Sporting end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $136 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$135.6
-$7.18
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $49.97 | $83.57 | +$33.6 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57.5¢ | $73.91 | $40.48 | -$33.43 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $6.67 | $6.53 | -$6.67 | 63% 1871-1118 (2989) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.8 | $4.11 | -$0.69 | 59% 31848-22485 (54333) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $0.9 | $0.91 | +$0.01 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
RN1<$100Invested
$49.97
Value
$83.57
PnL
+$33.6
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$73.91
Value
$40.48
PnL
-$33.43
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.53
PnL
-$6.67
Record
63%
1871-1118 (2989)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.11
PnL
-$0.69
Record
59%
31848-22485 (54333)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.91
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.