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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.7K
$170.98
82.7¢ → 93.4¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Noavg 88¢ | $875.37 | $934 | +$54 | 68% 1674-770 (2444) |
KR Krass | Noavg 76.9¢ | $543.53 | $615.69 | +$111.33 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 randomWalkingShrimp | Noavg 70.8¢ | $85 | $112.08 | +$27.08 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 aenews2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $24.27 | $11.2 | -$13.07 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $12.58 | $6.66 | -$6.18 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $6.41 | $4.23 | -$2.18 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$875.37
Value
$934
PnL
+$54
Record
68%
1674-770 (2444)
Invested
$543.53
Value
$615.69
PnL
+$111.33
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
randomWalkingShrimpInvested
$85
Value
$112.08
PnL
+$27.08
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
aenews2CTR<$100Invested
$24.27
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$13.07
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$6.66
PnL
-$6.18
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$6.41
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$2.18
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.