Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$1.6K
$242.61
40.7¢ → 40¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
105h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Arman2CTR | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $855.74 | $837.46 | -$7.81 | 58% 332-242 (574) |
 theta-thunberg | Noavg 30.6¢ | $239.54 | $461.53 | +$221.98 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 40¢ | $155.5 | $183.23 | +$27.73 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $46.16 | $51.82 | +$5.67 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $47.45 | $43.85 | -$3.61 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $28.35 | $27 | -$1.35 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
Invested
$855.74
Value
$837.46
PnL
-$7.81
Record
58%
332-242 (574)
theta-thunbergInvested
$239.54
Value
$461.53
PnL
+$221.98
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
Invested
$155.5
Value
$183.23
PnL
+$27.73
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
Invested
$46.16
Value
$51.82
PnL
+$5.67
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$47.45
Value
$43.85
PnL
-$3.61
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Invested
$28.35
Value
$27
PnL
-$1.35
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.