Consensus PnL $418 · win rate 60% (264–177, n=441) · was PM monthly #926 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$418.49
Record
264W / 177L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 441 settled
Batting Avg
49.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1164
Source
PM monthly #926
Trades
1,251
Markets
711
Volume
$699.0K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 10 on the consensus side (40%)- Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Yes $1.1K · now 24¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (57% of 8)
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Yes $874 · now 90¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- US imports Russian diesel by November 15?Yes $796 · now 40¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Yes $473 · now 25¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?Yes $438 · now 40¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Yes $126 · now 3¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- US imports Russian diesel by November 2?Yes $123 · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Yes $66 · now 1¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
551 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 57¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 61% of 75 · avg entry 58¢
ROI −3%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 62% of 21 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −1%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 42% of 12 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 32% of 19 at an average 47¢ entry (−16 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 8% of 156)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 33% of 55)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 67% of 75)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 91% of 265)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.