US imports Russian diesel by November 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.6K
$140.66
89¢ → 98¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
94h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b | Noavg 88.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$206.04 | 72% 71-28 (99) |
AR Arman2CTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $205.61 | $122.92 | -$68.34 | 58% 332-242 (574) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 97¢ | $106.7 | $106.59 | +$0 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $48 | $48.45 | +$0.5 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $4.85 | $4.85 | +$0 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.23 | $3.68 | +$2.45 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0bInvested
$2,081.66
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$206.04
Record
72%
71-28 (99)
Invested
$205.61
Value
$122.92
PnL
-$68.34
Record
58%
332-242 (574)
Invested
$106.7
Value
$106.59
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$48
Value
$48.45
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$2.45
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.