US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.3K
$311.2
82¢ → 95.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
52 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 yen4u | Noavg 85.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$135.28 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 77.8¢ | $778.05 | $954.99 | +$176.94 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
PE peepeepooppoop | No | $39.03 | $929.13 | +$209.24 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $263.79 | $44.82 | -$218.98 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $22.05 | $30.97 | +$8.92 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
PA pakoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $0.25 | $0.05 | -$0.2 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
yen4uInvested
$1,155.78
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$135.28
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
Invested
$778.05
Value
$954.99
PnL
+$176.94
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
Invested
$39.03
Value
$929.13
PnL
+$209.24
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
CarCTRInvested
$263.79
Value
$44.82
PnL
-$218.98
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$22.05
Value
$30.97
PnL
+$8.92
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.