Consensus PnL $344K · win rate 72% (135–53, n=188) · PM monthly #471 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$344.1K
Record
135W / 53L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 188 settled
Batting Avg
69.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#668
Source
PM monthly #471 + pinned
Trades
19,349
Markets
448
Volume
$13.5M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 23 on the consensus side (70%)- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $30K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (33% of 18)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.7K · now 28¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (52% of 25)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 86¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 84¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 11¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No $1.0K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?No $656 · now 98¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
295 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 78¢- Economy
+4 pts
side won 80% of 94 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +10%
- Finance
+14 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+17 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 80% of 70 at an average 82¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −16%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 20% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 50% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 50% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 96% of 224)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.