Chelsea FC leading at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$366.34
48.9¢ → 72¢
+47% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $998.88 | $951.45 | -$47.44 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $514.53 | $685.09 | +$170.56 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 53¢ | $919.02 | $563.55 | -$355.47 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 44.8¢ | $450.71 | $316.59 | -$134.11 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $213.53 | $253.6 | +$40.06 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $142.8 | $186 | +$43.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.1¢ | $70.74 | $67.6 | -$3.14 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $8.31 | $8.44 | +$0.12 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
RN1Invested
$998.88
Value
$951.45
PnL
-$47.44
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$514.53
Value
$685.09
PnL
+$170.56
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$919.02
Value
$563.55
PnL
-$355.47
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$450.71
Value
$316.59
PnL
-$134.11
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$213.53
Value
$253.6
PnL
+$40.06
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.31
Value
$8.44
PnL
+$0.12
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.