FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$4.5K
$603.96
83.8¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540 | Overavg 98.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$33.74 | 79% 22-6 (28) |
 IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR | Underavg 1¢ | $10 | $680 | +$670 | 0% 2-417 (419) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 92¢ | $477.37 | $352.84 | -$124.53 | 59% 207-141 (348) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 88¢ | $366.67 | $283.33 | -$83.33 | 58% 3766-2722 (6488) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 78.4¢ | $252.25 | $222.83 | -$29.42 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 9.9¢ | $55.31 | $192.81 | +$137.5 | 25% 224-665 (889) |
Invested
$2,731.21
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$33.74
Record
79%
22-6 (28)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTRInvested
$10
Value
$680
PnL
+$670
Record
0%
2-417 (419)
Invested
$477.37
Value
$352.84
PnL
-$124.53
Record
59%
207-141 (348)
RN1CTRInvested
$366.67
Value
$283.33
PnL
-$83.33
Record
58%
3766-2722 (6488)
Invested
$252.25
Value
$222.83
PnL
-$29.42
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$55.31
Value
$192.81
PnL
+$137.5
Record
25%
224-665 (889)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.