Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: Both Teams to Score
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 51¢ · $659 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
2 arb excluded
$658.98
-$0.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $353.83 | $315.01 | -$6.66 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.5¢ | $258.96 | $251.41 | -$7.54 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $63.01 | $63.59 | +$0.88 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $179.92 | $172.41 | -$2.51 | 51% 442-417 (859) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $89.92 | $88.87 | -$1.05 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.4¢ | $50.71 | $49.36 | -$1.35 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.6¢ | $39.21 | $39.51 | +$0.3 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $49.32 | $50.75 | +$1.44 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $20.33 | $20.05 | -$0.28 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $8.72 | $9.29 | +$0.57 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $2.55 | $2.6 | +$0.05 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
Invested
$353.83
Value
$315.01
PnL
-$6.66
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$179.92
Value
$172.41
PnL
-$2.51
Record
51%
442-417 (859)
Invested
$89.92
Value
$88.87
PnL
-$1.05
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.32
Value
$50.75
PnL
+$1.44
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$20.05
PnL
-$0.28
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.57
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.