Spread: OL Lyonnes (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold OL Lyonnes (38%) · OL Lyonnes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

OL Lyonnes53¢Juventus FC47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

OL Lyonnes

Consensus Traders

OL Lyonnes 38%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$6.88

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOL Lyonnes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

OL Lyonnes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

OL Lyonnes53%

Juventus FC48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OL Lyonnes3 traders

Total Value$855.71

Total Shares1,505

Combined PnL-$36.05

Juventus FC5 traders

Total Value$630.85

Total Shares1,299

Combined PnL+$29.17

OL Lyonnes — 38%Juventus FC — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on OL Lyonnes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuventus FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Juventus FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	OL Lyonnesavg 53.8¢	$680.91	$655.8	-$25.11	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
LI LimousinCTR	Juventus FCavg 46.1¢	$230.59	$245.16	+$14.56	30% 372-863 (1235)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Juventus FCavg 46.7¢	$180.42	$183.35	+$2.93	31% 375-842 (1217)
SE sentrio	OL Lyonnesavg 54¢	$161.03	$151.97	-$9.06	37% 340-569 (909)
VE VenusianCTR	Juventus FCavg 47¢	$107.71	$112.29	+$4.58	30% 376-862 (1238)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Juventus FCavg 45¢	$73.56	$80.03	+$6.48	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
38 38791873984189<$100	OL Lyonnesavg 53¢	$49.82	$47.94	-$1.88	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Juventus FCavg 46¢	$9.4	$10.01	+$0.61	30% 371-861 (1232)

Flaznorp

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$680.91

Value

$655.8

PnL

-$25.11

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

LimousinCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$230.59

Value

$245.16

PnL

+$14.56

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

MadridTimeCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$180.42

Value

$183.35

PnL

+$2.93

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

sentrio

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$161.03

Value

$151.97

PnL

-$9.06

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

VenusianCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$107.71

Value

$112.29

PnL

+$4.58

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Juventus FC

Invested

$73.56

Value

$80.03

PnL

+$6.48

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

38791873984189<$100

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$49.82

Value

$47.94

PnL

-$1.88

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Juventus FC

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.61

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralOL Lyonnes at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

OL Lyonnes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on OL Lyonnes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuventus FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Juventus FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OL Lyonnes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.