Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 59¢ · $729 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$728.62
-$7.05
59.2¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 59¢ | $477.98 | $477.07 | -$0.91 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.8¢ | $98.43 | $92.24 | -$6.19 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 60.2¢ | $83.56 | $81.39 | -$2.18 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $31.5 | $32.28 | +$0.79 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $21.45 | $22.55 | +$1.1 | 67% 1639-791 (2430) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $17.37 | $18.25 | +$0.88 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $5.38 | $4.84 | -$0.54 | 41% 257-376 (633) |
Invested
$477.98
Value
$477.07
PnL
-$0.91
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$98.43
Value
$92.24
PnL
-$6.19
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
Invested
$83.56
Value
$81.39
PnL
-$2.18
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$32.28
PnL
+$0.79
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$22.55
PnL
+$1.1
Record
67%
1639-791 (2430)
Invested
$17.37
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$0.88
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.54
Record
41%
257-376 (633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.