Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 61¢ · $971 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$971.38
-$1.42
60.9¢ → 61¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 61¢ | $304.55 | $304.65 | +$0.09 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 38.8¢ | $286.31 | $287.88 | +$1.57 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 61.6¢ | $145.59 | $144.11 | -$1.48 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 60¢ | $171.84 | $122 | +$2.48 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $69.75 | $68.4 | -$1.35 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.5¢ | $45.07 | $42.39 | -$2.68 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.95 | -$0.05 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
Invested
$304.55
Value
$304.65
PnL
+$0.09
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$286.31
Value
$287.88
PnL
+$1.57
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$145.59
Value
$144.11
PnL
-$1.48
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
VeryLucky888Invested
$171.84
Value
$122
PnL
+$2.48
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$69.75
Value
$68.4
PnL
-$1.35
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$45.07
Value
$42.39
PnL
-$2.68
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.