Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.8K
$790.08
50.5¢ → 100¢
+98% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 57¢ | $864.79 | $1.3K | +$423.78 | 57% 4034-3050 (7084) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 51.1¢ | $771.18 | $819.45 | +$48.27 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 33¢ | $188.06 | $564.18 | +$376.12 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 63.2¢ | $50.51 | $79.94 | +$29.43 | 31% 210-476 (686) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $10 | +$5.4 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $62.6 | $3.05 | -$59.55 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 18.4¢ | $33.46 | $0.09 | -$33.37 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
RN1Invested
$864.79
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$423.78
Record
57%
4034-3050 (7084)
Invested
$771.18
Value
$819.45
PnL
+$48.27
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$188.06
Value
$564.18
PnL
+$376.12
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
Invested
$50.51
Value
$79.94
PnL
+$29.43
Record
31%
210-476 (686)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.4
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
Invested
$62.6
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$59.55
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$33.46
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$33.37
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.