Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 46¢ · $130 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$130.03
-$0.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $97.31 | $97.31 | -$0 | 50% 1362-1381 (2743) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.3¢ | $11.47 | $11.42 | -$0.05 | 28% 148-373 (521) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.62 | $7.45 | -$0.17 | 24% 200-631 (831) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.44 | $7.28 | -$0.16 | 24% 197-623 (820) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $8.9 | $4.55 | +$0.25 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.01 | $2.01 | +$0 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
Invested
$97.31
Value
$97.31
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1362-1381 (2743)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$11.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
148-373 (521)
Invested
$7.62
Value
$7.45
PnL
-$0.17
Record
24%
200-631 (831)
Invested
$7.44
Value
$7.28
PnL
-$0.16
Record
24%
197-623 (820)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.9
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.25
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.01
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.