Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 FC Bayern München?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$3.0K
-$517.92
80¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$50.96 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $937.13 | $900.55 | -$36.57 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1 | Noavg 73¢ | $565.75 | $577.38 | +$11.63 | 58% 3766-2722 (6488) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $19.93 | $19.93 | +$0 | 26% 226-645 (871) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $6.72 | $7.16 | +$0.45 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $388.8 | $0.72 | -$388.08 | 26% 226-653 (879) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $156.73 | $0.42 | -$156.31 | 25% 224-665 (889) |
Invested
$1,434.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$50.96
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$937.13
Value
$900.55
PnL
-$36.57
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1Invested
$565.75
Value
$577.38
PnL
+$11.63
Record
58%
3766-2722 (6488)
Invested
$19.93
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
226-645 (871)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$7.16
PnL
+$0.45
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$388.8
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$388.08
Record
26%
226-653 (879)
Invested
$156.73
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$156.31
Record
25%
224-665 (889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.