Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 0 - 1 Paris FC?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 94¢ · $638 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$638.32
$85.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 94.3¢ | $432.07 | $438.71 | +$6.64 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $65.23 | $78.41 | +$13.18 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $31.55 | $75.3 | +$43.75 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $19.39 | $39.81 | +$20.42 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.57 | $3.35 | +$1.78 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $1.55 | $1.55 | +$0 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $1.19 | $1.19 | +$0 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
Invested
$432.07
Value
$438.71
PnL
+$6.64
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$65.23
Value
$78.41
PnL
+$13.18
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$75.3
PnL
+$43.75
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$19.39
Value
$39.81
PnL
+$20.42
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$1.78
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.19
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.