Will Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner end in a draw?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 80¢ · $614 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$613.9
$8.92
75.4¢ → 79.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 75.7¢ | $253.81 | $260.41 | +$6.6 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 75¢ | $194.8 | $206.49 | +$11.69 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $64.93 | $64.93 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $71.53 | $63.75 | -$7.78 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $12.03 | $10.74 | -$1.29 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $6.4 | $6.25 | -$0.15 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.49 | $1.33 | -$0.16 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$253.81
Value
$260.41
PnL
+$6.6
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$194.8
Value
$206.49
PnL
+$11.69
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$64.93
Value
$64.93
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$71.53
Value
$63.75
PnL
-$7.78
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$10.74
PnL
-$1.29
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.16
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.