Will Rosenborg BK Kvinner win on 2026-11-11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.8K
$61.19
73.1¢ → 82.5¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$99.48 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.2¢ | $331.25 | $308.01 | -$1.19 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 81¢ | $200.27 | $147.84 | -$21.2 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $83.27 | $78.26 | -$5.01 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $71.91 | $52.55 | -$19.36 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $48.34 | $47.95 | +$7.07 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $45.6 | $47.03 | +$1.42 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
Invested
$1,064.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$99.48
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$331.25
Value
$308.01
PnL
-$1.19
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$200.27
Value
$147.84
PnL
-$21.2
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$83.27
Value
$78.26
PnL
-$5.01
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$71.91
Value
$52.55
PnL
-$19.36
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$48.34
Value
$47.95
PnL
+$7.07
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$47.03
PnL
+$1.42
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.