Spread: Broendby IF (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rosenborg BK Kvinner (40%) · Rosenborg BK Kvinner at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Rosenborg BK Kvinner
5
Rosenborg BK Kvinner 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$109.38
70.2¢ → 69.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRosenborg BK Kvinner at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Rosenborg BK Kvinner. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 69.9¢ | $1.1K | $951.37 | +$23.02 | 51% 1833-1786 (3619) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 78.3¢ | $1.0K | $947.81 | -$89.42 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ Rosenborg BK Kvinner leg | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 78.3¢ | $755.38 | $660.48 | -$94.9 | |
| └ Broendby IF leg | Broendby IFavg 30.9¢ | $281.85 | $287.33 | +$5.48 | |
VE VenusianCTR | Broendby IFavg 21.3¢ | $157.39 | $225.13 | +$67.74 | 30% 379-865 (1244) |
SE sentrio | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 72¢ | $188.05 | $180.37 | -$7.69 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Broendby IFavg 22.2¢ | $57.01 | $80.85 | +$23.84 | 30% 373-867 (1240) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Broendby IFavg 27.3¢ | $20.88 | $23.35 | +$2.47 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
Invested
$1,128.14
Value
$951.37
PnL
+$23.02
Record
51%
1833-1786 (3619)
Invested
$1,037.23
Value
$947.81
PnL
-$89.42
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
Invested
$157.39
Value
$225.13
PnL
+$67.74
Record
30%
379-865 (1244)
Invested
$188.05
Value
$180.37
PnL
-$7.69
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
Invested
$57.01
Value
$80.85
PnL
+$23.84
Record
30%
373-867 (1240)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$23.35
PnL
+$2.47
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.