Spread: SK Brann (-3.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SK Brann (100%) · SK Brann at 94¢ · $756 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
SK Brann
6
SK Brann 100%
1 arb excluded
$756.33
$323.28
47.4¢ → 94¢
+98% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSK Brann at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | SK Brannavg 44.6¢ | $282.51 | $481.45 | +$267.48 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | SK Brannavg 87.1¢ | $87.13 | $92.53 | +$5.4 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 58¢ | $415.26 | $90.44 | -$324.82 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ Czarni Sosnowiec leg | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 58¢ | $373.3 | $48.25 | -$325.05 | |
| └ SK Brann leg | SK Brannavg 92¢ | $41.96 | $42.19 | +$0.23 | |
LI LightParadox<$100 | SK Brannavg 18¢ | $28.76 | $68.11 | +$39.35 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
LI Limousin<$100 | SK Brannavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $14.6 | +$4.8 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | SK Brannavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $4.75 | +$2.9 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
SE sentrio<$100 | SK Brannavg 18¢ | $1.1 | $4.45 | +$3.35 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$282.51
Value
$481.45
PnL
+$267.48
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$87.13
Value
$92.53
PnL
+$5.4
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$415.26
Value
$90.44
PnL
-$324.82
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.76
Value
$68.11
PnL
+$39.35
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$2.9
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$3.35
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.