Will Fenerbahce Istanbul win on 2026-11-11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $596 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$596.27
-$64.36
84.6¢ → 96.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84¢ | $327.82 | $332.41 | +$4.6 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84¢ | $129 | $114.6 | -$14.4 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 85¢ | $144.78 | $89.43 | -$55.36 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $25.55 | $28.79 | +$3.24 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $28.73 | $26.37 | -$2.36 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.68 | -$0.07 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
Invested
$327.82
Value
$332.41
PnL
+$4.6
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$129
Value
$114.6
PnL
-$14.4
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$144.78
Value
$89.43
PnL
-$55.36
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$28.79
PnL
+$3.24
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$28.73
Value
$26.37
PnL
-$2.36
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.