Eintracht Frankfurt vs. PSV Eindhoven: O/U 3.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $438 held · ends Nov 11

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$437.77

Combined PnL

-$0.88

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$420.47

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$0.93

Over3 traders

Total Value$17.3

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.05

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57¢	$243.68	$235.02	-$0.88	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 57¢	$135.21	$135.21	+$0	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 57.1¢	$50.29	$50.24	-$0.05	37% 340-569 (909)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$13	$13	+$0	30% 376-862 (1238)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	+$0	30% 371-861 (1232)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.15	+$0.05	30% 372-863 (1235)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$243.68

Value

$235.02

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$135.21

Value

$135.21

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$50.29

Value

$50.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$13

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.