Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$786.85
17.3¢ → 32.5¢
+88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
785h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU buoysCTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $17.87 | $1.0K | +$559.52 | 46% 745-892 (1637) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 40¢ | $297.47 | $367.83 | +$229.67 | 68% 13198-6216 (19414) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $342.45 | $352.04 | +$27.09 | 17% 4501-22033 (26534) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.2¢ | $224.14 | $255.63 | +$19.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $88.7 | $96.41 | +$7.71 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $6.37 | $6.02 | -$0.35 | 53% 8588-7658 (16246) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.6¢ | $4.67 | $2.68 | -$1.99 | 39% 316-501 (817) |
Invested
$17.87
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$559.52
Record
46%
745-892 (1637)
Invested
$297.47
Value
$367.83
PnL
+$229.67
Record
68%
13198-6216 (19414)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$342.45
Value
$352.04
PnL
+$27.09
Record
17%
4501-22033 (26534)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.37
Value
$6.02
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
8588-7658 (16246)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$1.99
Record
39%
316-501 (817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.