Consensus PnL $93K · win rate 48% (689–741, n=1430) · PM monthly #943 · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$92.7K
Record
689W / 741L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1430 settled
Batting Avg
62.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1285
Source
PM monthly #943
Record (90 d)
201/502 · 40%
Trades
3,616
Markets
2,044
Volume
$740.7K
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Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 50 on the consensus side (56%)- Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?Yes $8.2K · now 86¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $2.3K · now 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Yes $2.1K · now 44¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.0K · now 71¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (72% of 64)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.3K · now 12¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Yes $1.3K · now 9¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes $1.0K · now 24¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (38% of 9)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $874 · now 72¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,635 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 41¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 42% of 645 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 63% of 330 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 46% of 192 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Science — held side won 23% of 13 at an average 30¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 12% of 676)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 47% of 257)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 67% of 309)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 91% of 393)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.