Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$7.28
$-1.2K
7.1¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
49 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $533.07 | $3.47 | -$529.76 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.84 | $1.84 | -$281.5 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $0 | $0.52 | +$0.52 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $840.73 | $0.36 | -$414.99 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
LO Logan.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $0 | $0.09 | +$0.09 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
Invested
$533.07
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$529.76
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$281.5
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0.52
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$840.73
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$414.99
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.09
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.