Consensus PnL $354K · win rate 33% (319–643, n=962) · hand-picked wallet · holds 91 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$354.5K
Record
319W / 643L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 962 settled
Batting Avg
66.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2172
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
67,683
Markets
1,857
Volume
$6.1M
Top consensus positions
91 in listed consensus markets · 73 of 91 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $24K · now 65¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $5.5K · now 90¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $3.6K · now 77¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No $2.7K · now 60¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $2.1K · now 70¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 86¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?No $1.8K · now 87¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (89% of 10)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
Specialties
1,089 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 31¢- Culture
+7 pts
side won 18% of 51 · avg entry 10¢
ROI +8%
- Tennis
+29 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +10%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 33% of 169 · avg entry 30¢
ROI −5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 27% of 135 at an average 31¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 58%(won 7% of 634)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 43% of 164)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 75% of 103)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 94% of 188)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.