Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.1K
$72.96
78.8¢ → 93¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 76¢ | $397.11 | $690.57 | +$50.89 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 Slowroasted | Noavg 91¢ | $227.5 | $230 | +$3.75 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $53.81 | $74.45 | +$20.63 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $44.25 | $46 | +$1.75 | 66% 558-290 (848) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $19.58 | $13.59 | -$5.99 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 rabbit007<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $4.6 | +$1.93 | 53% 355-309 (664) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$397.11
Value
$690.57
PnL
+$50.89
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
SlowroastedInvested
$227.5
Value
$230
PnL
+$3.75
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Invested
$53.81
Value
$74.45
PnL
+$20.63
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$44.25
Value
$46
PnL
+$1.75
Record
66%
558-290 (848)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$13.59
PnL
-$5.99
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
rabbit007<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$1.93
Record
53%
355-309 (664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.