Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 47% (247–278, n=525) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$44.0K
Record
247W / 278L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 525 settled
Batting Avg
51.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1919
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,774
Markets
751
Volume
$916.7K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 82¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (68% of 28)
- Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes $764 · now 78¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $755 · now 90¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No $551 · now 84¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $354 · now 72¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $340 · now 89¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (71% of 24)
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?No $5 · now 93¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
589 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 40¢- Economy
+11 pts
side won 48% of 63 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +6%
- Politics
+9 pts
side won 57% of 81 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +7%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 44% of 84 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 18% of 11 at an average 20¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 12% of 280)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 49% of 83)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 67% of 95)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 95% of 131)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.