Will Ackerman have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $720 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$720.01
-$1.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
118h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HomelessnHoeless | Noavg 99.9¢ | $720.26 | $719.9 | +$0.48 | 51% 133-128 (261) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.24 | $0.06 | -$0.18 | 15% 4979-29159 (34138) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $1.35 | $0.03 | -$1.33 | 57% 41426-31209 (72635) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.38 | 25% 682-2042 (2724) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0 | $0 | -$0.04 | 32% 21156-45383 (66539) |
HomelessnHoelessInvested
$720.26
Value
$719.9
PnL
+$0.48
Record
51%
133-128 (261)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.18
Record
15%
4979-29159 (34138)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.33
Record
57%
41426-31209 (72635)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.38
Record
25%
682-2042 (2724)
Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.04
Record
32%
21156-45383 (66539)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.