Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $127 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$127.37
-$41.91
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
326h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $86.13 | $86 | -$0.13 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $34.83 | $29.72 | -$0.01 | 77% 11689-3584 (15273) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $4.28 | -$35.84 | 56% 839-647 (1486) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.59 | $4.2 | -$2.13 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.58 | $2.76 | +$1.18 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.41 | $0.42 | -$4.99 | 25% 181-537 (718) |
Invested
$86.13
Value
$86
PnL
-$0.13
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$34.83
Value
$29.72
PnL
-$0.01
Record
77%
11689-3584 (15273)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$35.84
Record
56%
839-647 (1486)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$2.13
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$1.58
Value
$2.76
PnL
+$1.18
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$4.99
Record
25%
181-537 (718)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.