Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$36.66

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 95.4¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,251

Combined PnL-$32.86

No1 trader

Total Value$2.71

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$3.8

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

123h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO coco040678	Yesavg 94.5¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$92.17	81% 80-19 (99)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 93.5¢	$560.65	$554.73	+$26.11	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 90¢	$220	$215.82	+$17.82	61% 203-132 (335)
sciuboi	Yesavg 89.2¢	$115.96	$122.2	+$11.57	39% 201-319 (520)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 94.2¢	$91.35	$95.16	+$3.8	50% 357-357 (714)
viniiCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$4.51	$2.71	-$3.8	74% 2792-1004 (3796)

coco040678

Yes

Invested

$3,060.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$92.17

Record

81%

80-19 (99)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$560.65

Value

$554.73

PnL

+$26.11

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$215.82

PnL

+$17.82

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

sciuboi

Yes

Invested

$115.96

Value

$122.2

PnL

+$11.57

Record

39%

201-319 (520)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.35

Value

$95.16

PnL

+$3.8

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

viniiCTR<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$3.8

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

123h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.