Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$14.86
-$794.79
1.9¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
59 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR dromedaryyCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $336.35 | $8 | -$328.35 | 35% 35-64 (99) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $105.36 | $2.37 | -$103.09 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.96 | $2.21 | -$95.83 | 36% 2085-3721 (5806) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.79 | $1.79 | -$77.91 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
12 123987456CTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.9K | $0.17 | -$7.33 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
NO NoMoreMisterCTR | Yes | $423.05 | $0 | -$182.27 | 76% 8934-2819 (11753) |
Invested
$336.35
Value
$8
PnL
-$328.35
Record
35%
35-64 (99)
Invested
$105.36
Value
$2.37
PnL
-$103.09
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$95.83
Record
36%
2085-3721 (5806)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$77.91
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$1,879.85
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$7.33
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$423.05
Value
$0
PnL
-$182.27
Record
76%
8934-2819 (11753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.