Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-10.8K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares531,444

Combined PnL$-10.8K

No1 trader

Total Value$4.98

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yes	$1.8K	$1.8K	$-10.5K	43% 561-738 (1299)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$309.38	$321.73	+$12.35	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$361.37	$258.68	-$71.33	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$261.88	$15.2	-$171.25	11% 20-166 (186)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.93	$4.98	+$0.05	42% 2259-3078 (5337)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.71	$0.59	-$5.12	83% 2683-538 (3221)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,795.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-10.5K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$309.38

Value

$321.73

PnL

+$12.35

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$361.37

Value

$258.68

PnL

-$71.33

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR

Yes

Invested

$261.88

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$171.25

Record

11%

20-166 (186)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

2259-3078 (5337)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$5.12

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.