Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$130.32

Smart Money Entry

1.9¢ → 2.1¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares71,904

Combined PnL+$130.32

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

331h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6E35F901bf88F7B0eb6E87Fb3C8e23C524dB8ca4-1767542008034CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$400	$525	+$125	42% 28-38 (66)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$434.04	$455.78	+$21.74	41% 1281-1831 (3112)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$349.55	$342.27	-$7.27	41% 1988-2806 (4794)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$89.56	$92.93	+$3.37	11% 20-166 (186)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$95.24	$84	-$11.24	60% 1348-885 (2233)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$11.28	$10	-$1.28	56% 14473-11230 (25703)

0x6E35F901bf88F7B0eb6E87Fb3C8e23C524dB8ca4-1767542008034CTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$525

PnL

+$125

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$434.04

Value

$455.78

PnL

+$21.74

Record

41%

1281-1831 (3112)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$349.55

Value

$342.27

PnL

-$7.27

Record

41%

1988-2806 (4794)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.56

Value

$92.93

PnL

+$3.37

Record

11%

20-166 (186)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.24

Value

$84

PnL

-$11.24

Record

60%

1348-885 (2233)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.28

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.28

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

331h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2976.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

3076.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.