Will Backrooms be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 97¢ · $212 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$211.92
$26.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
109h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheWindKnowsmyName | Noavg 92.2¢ | $112.95 | $109.11 | +$4.97 | 9% 4-39 (43) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $46.84 | $73.26 | +$26.42 | — |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $6.52 | $10.2 | +$3.68 | — 0-3 (3) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $64.54 | $8.81 | -$12.85 | 39% 179-277 (456) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $4.79 | $7.48 | +$2.7 | — 4-3 (7) |
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.96 | $3.06 | +$1.1 | — 0-3 (3) |
Invested
$112.95
Value
$109.11
PnL
+$4.97
Record
9%
4-39 (43)
Invested
$46.84
Value
$73.26
PnL
+$26.42
Record
—
Invested
$6.52
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$3.68
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$64.54
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$12.85
Record
39%
179-277 (456)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$2.7
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$1.1
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.