Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.9K
$1.3K
31.5¢ → 68.1¢
+116% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
948h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $137.59 | $1.3K | +$1.2K | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $141.71 | $231.92 | +$90.22 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 78¢ | $188.78 | $171.07 | -$17.71 | 73% 2952-1072 (4024) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $101.98 | $157.03 | +$55.04 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $31.25 | $22.54 | -$8.71 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 Gohst<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $4.96 | $6.37 | +$1.41 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
Invested
$137.59
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$141.71
Value
$231.92
PnL
+$90.22
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
Tenebrus7Invested
$188.78
Value
$171.07
PnL
-$17.71
Record
73%
2952-1072 (4024)
Invested
$101.98
Value
$157.03
PnL
+$55.04
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$31.25
Value
$22.54
PnL
-$8.71
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Gohst<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$1.41
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.