Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$17.4K
$4.0K
67.5¢ → 88¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
749h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 69.4¢ | $9.8K | $12.5K | +$2.7K | 52% 2745-2562 (5307) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 60.7¢ | $2.1K | $3.1K | +$939.47 | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 64¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$382.38 | 62% 816-507 (1323) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Noavg 72.3¢ | $319.59 | $384.65 | +$65.06 | 51% 149-146 (295) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $14.48 | $14.69 | +$0.21 | 45% 2375-2942 (5317) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR | Yes | $125.08 | $0.27 | -$13.55 | 30% 1407-3212 (4619) |
justdanceInvested
$9,800.02
Value
$12.5K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
52%
2745-2562 (5307)
Invested
$2,124.11
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$939.47
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$1,064.25
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$382.38
Record
62%
816-507 (1323)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$319.59
Value
$384.65
PnL
+$65.06
Record
51%
149-146 (295)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$0.21
Record
45%
2375-2942 (5317)
Invested
$125.08
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$13.55
Record
30%
1407-3212 (4619)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.