Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $336 held · ends Jan 13, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$335.72
$0.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
2010h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 59.8¢ | $220.01 | $228.24 | +$8.23 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.8¢ | $154.65 | $142.57 | -$12.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $65.36 | $85.68 | +$20.32 | |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $44.73 | $43.43 | -$1.3 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $48.84 | $35.1 | +$2.8 | — 8-8 (16) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 60.1¢ | $18.03 | $17.37 | -$0.66 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 59.8¢ | $11.96 | $11.58 | -$0.38 | 28% 2424-6147 (8571) |
Invested
$220.01
Value
$228.24
PnL
+$8.23
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.73
Value
$43.43
PnL
-$1.3
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$48.84
Value
$35.1
PnL
+$2.8
Record
—
8-8 (16)
Invested
$18.03
Value
$17.37
PnL
-$0.66
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$11.58
PnL
-$0.38
Record
28%
2424-6147 (8571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.