Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 37% (1357–2296, n=3653) · PM monthly #133 · holds 100 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.7K
Record
1357W / 2296L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 3653 settled
Batting Avg
5.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2515
Source
PM monthly #133
Record (90 d)
2326/4258 · 55%
Trades
23,262
Markets
11,797
Volume
$580.6K
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Top consensus positions
100 in listed consensus markets · 74 of 100 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No $923 · now 89¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (53% of 30)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?No $832 · now 89¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (52% of 21)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?No $609 · now 98¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No $565 · now 99¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No $502 · now 99¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (35% of 22)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?No $450 · now 95¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No $450 · now 69¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?No $449 · now 81¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,472 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 61¢- MLB
+3 pts
side won 100% of 19 · avg entry 97¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 39% of 583 at an average 42¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 1% of 837)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 42% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 63% of 153)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 96% of 1383)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.