Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $225 held · ends Jun 16, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$224.63
-$6.29
66.6¢ → 63.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $147.65 | $132.81 | -$14.84 | 66% 938-493 (1431) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $46.78 | $46.43 | -$0.35 | 49% 8836-9340 (18176) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 32.3¢ | $12.9 | $13.13 | +$10.21 | 53% 29253-26162 (55415) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $13.1 | -$1.2 | 44% 2192-2842 (5034) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $10.01 | $10.24 | +$0.23 | 52% 6272-5822 (12094) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $9.27 | $8.92 | -$0.34 | 44% 6474-8170 (14644) |
Invested
$147.65
Value
$132.81
PnL
-$14.84
Record
66%
938-493 (1431)
Invested
$46.78
Value
$46.43
PnL
-$0.35
Record
49%
8836-9340 (18176)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$13.13
PnL
+$10.21
Record
53%
29253-26162 (55415)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.1
PnL
-$1.2
Record
44%
2192-2842 (5034)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$10.24
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
6272-5822 (12094)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$8.92
PnL
-$0.34
Record
44%
6474-8170 (14644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.