Consensus PnL $151K · win rate 56% (4593–3588, n=8181) · PM monthly #155 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$151.4K
Record
4593W / 3588L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 8181 settled
Batting Avg
38.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1418
Source
PM monthly #155
Record (90 d)
1612/3326 · 48%
Trades
28,380
Markets
14,601
Volume
$7.8M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 21 on the consensus side (95%)- Will François Hollande win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?No $50 · now 98¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?No $45 · now 87¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?No $22 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (73% of 12)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No $21 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?No $21 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?No $21 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?No $21 · now 95¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No $21 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
Specialties
4,667 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 69¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where VictorLudorum's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 60% of 1039 at an average 61¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 3% of 1220)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 35% of 183)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 58% of 225)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 97% of 3039)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.