Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$2.0K
$952.24
38.7¢ → 66.1¢
+71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
1259h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $395.43 | $1.1K | +$521.69 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $388.45 | $635.37 | +$246.92 | — 7-2 (9) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $4.17 | $149.54 | +$145.37 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $60.55 | $67.29 | +$6.75 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 Nadmi<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.43 | $28.05 | +$27.62 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 Gohst<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $3.5 | $7.4 | +$3.9 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$395.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$521.69
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
Invested
$388.45
Value
$635.37
PnL
+$246.92
Record
—
7-2 (9)
paddaaInvested
$4.17
Value
$149.54
PnL
+$145.37
Record
56%
836-644 (1480)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$67.29
PnL
+$6.75
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Nadmi<$100Invested
$0.43
Value
$28.05
PnL
+$27.62
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Gohst<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$3.9
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.