Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 27¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$14.8K
$879.92
24.8¢ → 26.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO botbotCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $13.2K | $14.0K | +$769.95 | 43% 314-418 (732) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $214.1 | $338.2 | +$124.09 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 probability | Noavg 74.6¢ | $208.24 | $203.6 | -$3.15 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 75¢ | $150 | $147 | -$3 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 77¢ | $135.69 | $129.52 | -$6.17 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $31.2 | $29.4 | -$1.8 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$13,208.93
Value
$14.0K
PnL
+$769.95
Record
43%
314-418 (732)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$214.1
Value
$338.2
PnL
+$124.09
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
probabilityInvested
$208.24
Value
$203.6
PnL
-$3.15
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$150
Value
$147
PnL
-$3
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
StudyPredictionInvested
$135.69
Value
$129.52
PnL
-$6.17
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$1.8
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.