Consensus PnL $597K · win rate 59% (312–220, n=532) · was PM monthly #886 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$596.5K
Record
312W / 220L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 532 settled
Batting Avg
53.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1227
Source
PM monthly #886
Trades
2,116
Markets
631
Volume
$8.8M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 9 on the consensus side (22%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $73K · now 31¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $67K · now 30¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North?Yes $14K · now 27¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $11K · now 23¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $10K · now 27¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.8K · now 20¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $5.4K · now 19¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Bears $2.0K · now 25¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
Specialties
456 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 45¢- NHL
+54 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +51%
- College Football
+40 pts
side won 92% of 52 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +33%
- NFL
+34 pts
side won 76% of 140 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 38% of 96)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 80% of 198)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 85% of 115)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 96% of 47)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.