Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $99K held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$99.3K
$-5.0K
48.9¢ → 46¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
641h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cosmicxbtCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $97.9K | $94.0K | $-4.9K | 69% 27-12 (39) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 52¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$96.96 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 probability | Noavg 56¢ | $992.56 | $968.06 | -$24.49 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 69¢ | $689.99 | $540 | -$155 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $285.91 | $294.81 | +$18.11 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.7¢ | $15.33 | $25.47 | +$7.26 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$97,935.63
Value
$94.0K
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
69%
27-12 (39)
Invested
$3,360.92
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$96.96
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
probabilityInvested
$992.56
Value
$968.06
PnL
-$24.49
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
StudyPredictionInvested
$689.99
Value
$540
PnL
-$155
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$285.91
Value
$294.81
PnL
+$18.11
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$15.33
Value
$25.47
PnL
+$7.26
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.