Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$2.7K
$68.71
64.8¢ → 68¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
156h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$100.65 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 66¢ | $52.8 | $374.74 | +$25.23 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 Chungvicular | Yesavg 70¢ | $353.56 | $343.45 | -$10.1 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
 ScottyNooo | Yesavg 66.2¢ | $311.43 | $319.89 | +$8.46 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Noavg 38.4¢ | $253.64 | $211.48 | -$42.16 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Noavg 35.1¢ | $5.15 | $121.78 | -$13.37 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$1,183.03
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$100.65
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$52.8
Value
$374.74
PnL
+$25.23
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
ChungvicularInvested
$353.56
Value
$343.45
PnL
-$10.1
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
ScottyNoooInvested
$311.43
Value
$319.89
PnL
+$8.46
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$253.64
Value
$211.48
PnL
-$42.16
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$121.78
PnL
-$13.37
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.