Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$6.9K
-$19.55
93¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4211h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 93.6¢ | $5.3K | $5.5K | +$180.3 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 93¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$42.21 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 vinii | Noavg 75.8¢ | $144 | $183.83 | +$39.83 | 74% 2792-1005 (3797) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $333.84 | $85.54 | -$248.3 | 60% 1777-1177 (2954) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $34.98 | $14.88 | -$20.09 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $15.19 | $1.7 | -$13.49 | 54% 1434-1230 (2664) |
tetraseInvested
$5,321.73
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$180.3
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$1,028.54
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$42.21
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
viniiInvested
$144
Value
$183.83
PnL
+$39.83
Record
74%
2792-1005 (3797)
aenews2CTRInvested
$333.84
Value
$85.54
PnL
-$248.3
Record
60%
1777-1177 (2954)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$34.98
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$20.09
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$15.19
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$13.49
Record
54%
1434-1230 (2664)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.