Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$5.3K
$790.54
64¢ → 76¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
747h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 seal7 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.7K | +$326.85 | 49% 288-302 (590) |
 twinna | Yesavg 59.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$402.47 | 50% 94-94 (188) |
 macrosteaks | Yes | $578.97 | $578.97 | +$93.31 | 54% 3274-2742 (6016) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $74.85 | $54.44 | -$20.41 | 30% 2189-5039 (7228) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $44.72 | $47.92 | +$3.83 | 50% 713-716 (1429) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $52.7 | $37.2 | -$15.5 | 25% 181-542 (723) |
seal7Invested
$2,388.96
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$326.85
Record
49%
288-302 (590)
twinnaInvested
$1,492.52
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$402.47
Record
50%
94-94 (188)
macrosteaksInvested
$578.97
Value
$578.97
PnL
+$93.31
Record
54%
3274-2742 (6016)
Invested
$74.85
Value
$54.44
PnL
-$20.41
Record
30%
2189-5039 (7228)
Invested
$44.72
Value
$47.92
PnL
+$3.83
Record
50%
713-716 (1429)
Invested
$52.7
Value
$37.2
PnL
-$15.5
Record
25%
181-542 (723)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.